Will the United Opposition announce a joint presidential candidate by 30/11/2026?

This market resolves at 12:00 EAT on 1/12/2026 to Yes if Citizen Digital publishes confirmation by 23:59 EAT on 30/11/2026 that Kenya’s United Opposition bloc has formally and publicly named one individual as its agreed joint presidential candidate for the 2027 General Election. The report must identify the candidate and attribute the announcement to a joint statement, a coalition decision-making meeting, or a spokesperson explicitly announcing the bloc’s collective decision. An individual politician declaring their own candidacy, a constituent party nominating its candidate, personal endorsements, leaked negotiations, shortlists, proposed selection methods and promises of a later announcement do not qualify. A qualifying announcement counts even if the candidate subsequently withdraws or is replaced; IEBC nomination or clearance is not required. If no qualifying report is published by the deadline, the market resolves No. Delayed negotiations, cancellation of an announcement event or dissolution of the bloc without a qualifying announcement also resolve No. If Citizen Digital’s relevant reporting cannot be accessed sufficiently to determine the result at resolution, the market is void. Resolution source: Citizen Digital

Will William Ruto be declared President elect in the 2027 presidential election?

Resolves Yes if William Ruto is declared President elect following the presidential election held on 10 August 2027, and that declaration stands after any Supreme Court petition is determined. Resolves No in every other case, including if he does not appear on the ballot, or if a declaration in his favour is annulled by the Supreme Court. If a second round is required, this market resolves on the final outcome after the second round. Source: https://www.iebc.or.ke

Will the 2027 presidential election require a second round?

Resolves Yes if the IEBC announces that no candidate met the constitutional threshold in the first round of the presidential election held on 10 August 2027, and that a second round will be held. Resolves No if a candidate is declared President elect on the first round result. If the first round result is annulled by the Supreme Court and a fresh election is ordered, this market resolves on the first round outcome as originally declared. Source: https://www.iebc.or.ke

Will turnout in the 2027 general election exceed 65%?

Resolves Yes if the voter turnout figure for the general election held on 10 August 2027, as stated by the IEBC in its official declaration of results, exceeds 65 per cent of registered voters. Resolves No if the stated figure is 65 per cent or below. The IEBC figure governs.

Will the 2027 presidential result be challenged by petition at the Supreme Court?

Resolves Yes if a petition challenging the declared result of the 2027 presidential election is filed at the Supreme Court of Kenya within the period allowed by law. Resolves No if no such petition is filed within that period. Filing is sufficient. The outcome of any petition does not affect this market.